Every January 1 renewal produces the same conversation. The carrier sends an increase, someone proposes a plan with a higher deductible, and the new premium is presented as a saving. It is not one. It is the same claims dollars, paid by your employees instead of by you.

Real savings look different. On one recent comparison we reconciled, covering 33 enrolled lives, employer medical cost fell $81,174.60 a year, about 14 percent. The replacement plans also carried a $4,000 individual out-of-pocket maximum, against $8,000 on the current plan. Cost went down and employee protection went up at the same time. That is what buying the same plan design through better economics looks like, and this guide is how to tell it apart from a benefit cut.

Who wrote this. PEO Consulting Partners is an independent PEO brokerage and consulting firm, placing clients since 2015: 100+ clients placed, 36 PEOs compared, and every comparison reconciled plan by plan and tier by tier on the same enrolled population. Client figures on this page are de-identified and aggregated. No client is named and no figure is matched to a PEO.

Ask what the employee pays in a bad year

The question to ask of any renewal or proposal is not "how much can we save". It is "what does one employee pay in a bad year". Premium tells you what the employer pays. The out-of-pocket side tells you whether the saving came from somewhere real or from your people.

Model one employee at four levels of annual claims: $2,500 (a normal year), $10,000 (a procedure or a hospital visit), $40,000 (a surgery, a pregnancy with complications, a serious diagnosis) and $150,000 (a catastrophic year). Run each through the current plan and through every proposal.

ClaimsCurrentProposal 1Proposal 2
$2,500$2,500$2,100$2,500
$10,000$4,400$3,600$6,500
$40,000$8,000$4,000$9,000
$150,000$8,000$4,000$9,000

Employee out-of-pocket cost, in network. Proposal 1 buys the same kind of design through better economics; proposal 2 "saves" with a higher deductible. Illustrative plan designs, not a client's plans: the current plan has a $3,000 deductible, 20 percent coinsurance and an $8,000 out-of-pocket maximum; proposal 1 has a $2,000 deductible, 20 percent coinsurance and a $4,000 maximum; proposal 2 has a $5,000 deductible, 30 percent coinsurance and a $9,000 maximum. Copays and employee premium contributions are left out to keep the comparison on cost sharing.

The rule: if employer cost falls but the $40,000 column gets worse, you have moved money onto employees and called it savings. The $40,000 row matters most because it is common enough to happen to someone on a small team every year and large enough to reach the out-of-pocket maximum. The $2,500 row barely moves between plans, which is why proposals that cut benefits look harmless when they are presented with a typical-year example.

How to compare two plans that are not identical

Replacement plans rarely match the current plan line for line. Different carriers build different designs, and a PEO master plan offers its own menu. You still need a disciplined way to say whether a proposed plan is richer, poorer or about the same.

Score the stated cost-sharing attributes side by side for each current plan and its proposed replacement:

  • Individual deductible and family deductible
  • Individual out-of-pocket maximum and family out-of-pocket maximum
  • Coinsurance after the deductible
  • Specialist copay

Map each employee's current plan to the closest replacement on those attributes, and note every attribute where the replacement is worse. Then apply two cautions, stated plainly.

Attribute similarity is not actuarial equivalence. Two plans can score close on the attributes and still differ in value, because of how the deductible applies to prescriptions, which services bypass it, how the pharmacy tiers work, and what counts toward the maximum. A close score is a reason to look harder, not a conclusion.

Carrier and network differences are not scored by any of it. A plan with a better deductible on a network that excludes your employees' doctors is a worse plan. Before you trust any attribute comparison, check the proposed network against your actual utilisation: the physicians, hospitals and specialists your employees used in the last year.

Compare at tier level on real enrollment

A headline percentage averages across coverage tiers, and the average can hide where the money moves. Price every tier on your real enrollment, the actual count of employees in employee only, employee plus spouse, employee plus children and family coverage, not on a sample census.

On the same 33-life comparison, the employer cost change by tier was:

Coverage tierChange in employer cost
Employee onlyDown 13.0 percent
Employee plus spouseDown 18.5 percent
Employee plus childrenDown 19.3 percent
FamilyDown 17.5 percent

That is a saving spread across every tier. Many proposals are not like that. If a headline saving comes almost entirely from one tier, say a sharply cheaper employee-only rate with flat or higher dependent rates, it is a different proposal than the headline implies: it favours one part of your workforce, it changes what dependent coverage costs your employees, and it will look different again the moment your enrollment mix shifts.

Renewal on the desk? Get a tier-by-tier comparison on your real enrollment →

Watch the enrolled population

Every comparison needs the same people on both sides. It sounds obvious and it is the error we see most often.

In the comparison above, the group had 34 people on the medical plan, and the 34th was a COBRA participant. The proposals were priced on the 33 active lives, so the COBRA participant was excluded from both sides. Had current cost been counted on 34 lives against a proposal priced on 33, roughly $8,600 a year of imaginary saving would have appeared from nothing: not a better price, just one fewer person.

Check, for every quote: who is on the current bill (actives, COBRA participants, anyone on leave), who the proposal priced, and whether waivers and late enrollees were handled the same way. A proposal that covers fewer lives is not cheaper. It is quoting something else.

Levers that lower cost without touching the plan

These are the levers that change economics rather than benefits, roughly in the order they are worth pulling.

  1. Same design, different carrier. Carriers price the same group differently. Market the current design as it is before anyone proposes changing it.
  2. A larger risk pool. A PEO master plan prices your employees as part of a much larger group. Under 100 employees this is usually the biggest lever available, and it is the one behind the comparison above.
  3. Contribution strategy and tier structure. How much the employer pays per tier, and whether the plan uses two, three or four tiers, changes cost and who enrolls. Fixing a structure that over-subsidises one tier is a real saving, because the benefit itself does not change.
  4. Carve workers' comp and ancillary out consistently on both sides. Dental, vision, life, disability and workers' comp are often bundled in one quote and missing from another. Put them in or take them out of every side the same way, or the comparison is measuring packaging.
  5. Alternative funding at 50 lives and up. Level-funded and self-funded arrangements can lower cost for a healthy group. The caveat is part of the definition: they lower cost by transferring claims risk to you. That is a decision, not a free saving.

Fake savings: the levers to reject

These reduce the employer's premium by moving cost onto employees. They are not savings and should not be presented as savings.

  • Raising the deductible. Employees pay more of their own claims before the plan pays anything. The premium falls because the plan covers less.
  • Raising the out-of-pocket maximum. This is the cut that hurts most and shows least: it costs nothing in a normal year and thousands in exactly the year an employee is sick.
  • Narrowing the network. The premium falls because employees lose access to doctors and hospitals, and they find out when they need care.
  • Dropping dependent coverage. The employer's cost falls because families lose coverage or buy it somewhere else at their own expense.

Each one can be a legitimate choice if the business has to spend less and says so openly. None of them is a saving. If a renewal strategy depends on one of them, call it a benefit reduction and let employees plan for it.

What to do now

January 1 renewals are usually released in October and November. Start the comparison when the renewal arrives, not in December. Rules of thumb for reading the increase:

  • Under 8 percent: shop, but expect little. The market may not beat it by much.
  • 10 percent or more: get a full market comparison, including a pooled option such as a PEO master plan.
  • 20 percent or more: treat it as a signal about your group, usually claims experience or a shift in demographics, rather than a number to negotiate.

These bands are rules of thumb and judgement, not measured data. Between 8 and 10 percent, the right move depends on what is driving the increase. If you are approaching 50 employees, read what changes when you cross 50 employees first: crossing into large group changes how your renewal is rated.

Want your renewal tested in a bad year before you sign it? Request a free renewal comparison →

FAQ

How can a company lower health insurance costs without cutting benefits?

Buy the same plan design through better economics instead of buying a worse plan. In order: price the same design with a different carrier, move into a larger risk pool such as a PEO master plan (usually the biggest lever under 100 employees), fix the contribution strategy and tier structure, treat workers' comp and ancillary lines consistently on both sides of the comparison, and at 50 lives and up look at alternative funding, which lowers cost by transferring risk to you. Raising the deductible, raising the out-of-pocket maximum, narrowing the network and dropping dependent coverage are not savings. They move cost onto employees.

Is raising the deductible a real way to save on health insurance?

No. A higher deductible lowers the premium because employees pay more of their own claims. The employer's cost falls and the employee's cost in a bad year rises by roughly the same money. Test any proposal by modelling one employee at $40,000 of annual claims under the current plan and the proposal. If employer cost falls but that employee pays more, you have moved money onto employees and called it savings.

How do I compare two health plans that are not identical?

Score the stated cost-sharing attributes side by side: individual and family deductible, individual and family out-of-pocket maximum, coinsurance and specialist copay. Two cautions. Attribute similarity is not actuarial equivalence, so a close score does not mean the plans are worth the same. And carrier and network differences are not scored by any of it, so check the network against the doctors and hospitals your employees actually use before you trust the comparison.

Why compare health insurance cost by tier instead of in total?

Because a total can hide where the saving lands. On one recent comparison the employer cost fell 13.0 percent for employee only, 18.5 percent for employee plus spouse, 19.3 percent for employee plus children and 17.5 percent for family. Price every tier on your real enrollment. A saving concentrated in one tier is a different proposal than the headline implies.

Can a PEO lower health insurance costs?

Often, for groups under about 100 employees, because a PEO master plan prices your employees as part of a much larger pool. It is not automatic. Compare the PEO's plans against your current plans on the same enrolled population, tier by tier, and check the out-of-pocket maximum and the network, not just the premium.

How big a renewal increase is worth shopping?

As a rule of thumb: under 8 percent, shop but expect little; 10 percent or more, get a full market comparison; 20 percent or more, treat it as a signal about your group rather than a number to negotiate. These bands are judgement, not measured data.

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